Delhi is stepping up its battle against pollution with a strict new rule. Starting July 1, 2025, diesel vehicles older than 10 years and petrol vehicles older than 15 years will no longer be allowed to refuel at petrol pumps in the capital. This move isn’t just about cleaner air though. It’s set to bring a massive financial windfall for automakers and the government. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the ban could generate a staggering Rs 4.5 lakh crore in revenue for auto companies, importers, and tax coffers. Here’s how the numbers break down. If 1.8 million old vehicles are replaced by new cars priced at an average of Rs 15 lakh each, the auto industry stands to gain Rs 2.7 lakh crore in turnover. On top of that, the central government is expected to collect Rs 1,35,000 crore from GST and compensation cess. The Delhi government, meanwhile, could pocket around Rs 42,187 crore from road taxes and diesel surcharges. And those figures might just be the tip of the iceberg. GTRI notes that the actual gains could be 50% higher since the estimate doesn’t account for the replacement of 4.4 million two-wheelers also affected by the ban. But while the financial upside is clear, the human cost can’t be ignored. Small businesses, informal workers, and middle-class families relying on older vehicles for their daily commute or livelihood will face significant challenges. The ban spans the entire National Capital Region (NCR), impacting not just Delhi but also nearby hubs like Noida, Gurugram, and Ghaziabad. To enforce the rule, Automated Number-Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras will be installed at fuel stations, linked directly to the VAHAN database. This tech-driven approach ensures compliance but raises questions about enforcement smoothness. GTRI’s report also calls for a more nuanced strategy. Instead of a blanket age-based ban, it suggests India take cues from Europe and the U.S., where older vehicles aren’t outright banned. Instead, these regions rely on stricter emissions tests, roadworthiness checks, and economic disincentives to phase out polluting vehicles. This way, modernization happens without disproportionately hurting low-income groups. Delhi’s move is bold, but whether it strikes the right balance between environmental goals and economic fairness remains to be seen.
